Pakistan’s recent defeat against Sri Lanka, with the series ending 1-1, has reduced their chances of making the World Test Championship (WTC) final.
Babar Azam’s team started the two-match series on a high, chasing 342 with four wickets to spare to climb up to third in the 2021-23 WTC table. However, a loss by 246 runs in the second match has hampered their hopes of playing in the finals at Lord’s next year, as they dropped down to fifth with 51.85 points won per points contested percentage (PCT).
They have played four series and nine Tests so far, winning four matches, losing three and drawing two.
What Pakistan’s schedule looks like
Pakistan have completed four series in the ongoing WTC cycle, and have two more series to go: against England and New Zealand. They are scheduled to play three Tests against the Ben Stokes-led side, besides playing two against the Black Caps. Both series will be at home.
Despite playing in familiar conditions, they will not necessarily go in as favourites. England’s Test fortunes are on the rise under new coach Brendon McCullum, with ‘Baz-Ball’ trending ever since he took over. However, England haven’t beaten Pakistan outside of England since 2001.
Inaugural WTC winners New Zealand have had the upper hand over Pakistan since 2011, which was the last time the latter won a Test series against the Kiwis. Since then, the two sides have played out four series, with only one series, in 2014/15, ending in a draw. New Zealand have won the last three series between the two countries, including in 2018/19, which was played in the UAE in conditions that assist Pakistan more.
If Pakistan win their last five Tests, they will end with a PCT of 69.05, which will likely be enough to make the finals. Notably, that figure would put them ahead of India, even if Rohit Sharma’s side win all six of their remaining Tests. However, their destiny will still be out of their hands. Should, for example, South Africa beat England 3-0 and lose 2-1 to Australia, with Australia beating India 2-0, they would both finish ahead of Pakistan in the points table.
If Pakistan lose even one match, their PCT will drop down to 61.90, while if Pakistan they win four and draw one, their PCT will be 64.28. In this case, India will be able to overtake them by winning all six of their Tests.
Should India win all six of their Tests, Pakistan win all of theirs, and South Africa win three and lose three of their remaining six Tests, a mouth-watering India-Pakistan WTC final at Lord’s would be on the cards.
