Pressure, not pace, the silver bullet in Australia

India’s win at the MCG was built on the foundations of a superbly disciplined performance with the ball. Despite their attack being a man down for the majority of the Australian second innings, India managed to restrict Australia’s scoring to under two runs per over; in the absence of David Warner, Australia have struggled to dominate the Indian attack for any prolonged period thus far in the series.

Two Tests into the series and Australia are yet to pass 200. While England are unlikely to be given pitches with quite as much grass as India have been able to work with – they also don’t possess a spinner as skilful as Ravichandran Ashwin – the India pace attack that has excelled thus far, Bumrah aside, isn’t one brimming with 90mph quicks. It’s been pressure, not pace, that’s been their silver bullet to this point.

It’s worth bearing in mind that this was something that England were incapable of doing consistently in 2017/18. In a five-man attack, James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Chris Woakes all went at fewer than three runs per over, but often couldn’t find support from the fourth and fifth members of the bowling unit. Moeen Ali infamously endured a miserable tour, while seamers Jake Ball, Tom Curran and Craig Overton all struggled to varying degrees at different points of the series..

England can be cautiously optimistic that they’re much better prepared this time round. Woakes is showing signs that he’s more a penetrative bowler away from home than he was three years ago; Broad is enjoying arguably the best spell of his career; they’ll have Ben Stokes back; Mark Wood is a rejuvenated figure, and in Jofra Archer and Sam Curran they have two potential match-winners they didn’t possess three years ago. Even on the periphery, Overton is a much-improved bowler, while Olly Stone and Ollie Robinson are a pair of different but exciting seamers who may well make the plane.

India tour will be a serious challenge

While there are elements of the England squad that have undoubtedly improved in recent times, the spin department is one area in which they have stagnated. England will be without Adil Rashid – who was by some distance their best spinner on the 2016/17 series in India – for their upcoming India trip. Ten Tests into his career and the jury is still out on whether Dom Bess can be England’s first-choice spinner this early in his career, while Jack Leach, through no fault of his own, has barely bowled in competitive cricket in the last year.

Depending on the pitches that India prepare, England may struggle to take 20 wickets per Test with the spin options they currently have at their disposal against the calibre of opposition they’ll face. When you factor that in with the form Ashwin and Jadeja have shown so far Down Under and India’s extraordinary recent home record – they’ve lost just three home Tests in the last decade – you can see why England could be in for a tough old time.

India possibly better placed to win in England than in 2018

4-1 didn’t feel like a scoreline that fairly reflected how balanced the 2018 England-India series was; the India defeats at Edgbaston and the Ageas Bowl in particular could easily have gone the other way. Three years on, India are an improved Test set-up. The depth of their fast bowling options is possibly unparalleled in world cricket with Mohammed Siraj the latest to impress straight off the production line.

Ravindra Jadeja is an improved cricketer and is unlikely to be on the sidelines this time round, and while it’s difficult to predict how the likes of Mayank Agarwal and Shubman Gill will fare in their first Test series on English soil, they’ll almost certainly improve on how Shikhar Dhawan and Murali Vijay fared in 2018. Rahane’s return to form under immense pressure and against a world-class attack on top of their game at the MCG also bodes well for India.

Only world-class spin will thrive in Australia, but that might suit England just fine

A look at the numbers of recent visiting spinners in Australia makes interesting reading. Long story short, they have almost all struggled. Other than Jadeja, Ashwin and Rangana Herath, no touring spinner who has played more than one Test averages under 40 in Australia over the last 10 years. Not only is it rare to thrive as a touring spinner in Australia, visiting tweakers seldom stifle the flow of runs either.

Ashwin is currently in the midst of a fine series, but he is the standout spinner in Test cricket. As Stuart MacGill explained to Wisden.com last month, on his fourth tour of Australia, Ashwin is more prepared to succeed there than ever before.

As explained earlier on, England do not have a spinner anywhere near the calibre of Ashwin but that’s not necessarily a worry for England. With the number of seam bowling options (and all-rounders) at their disposal, they could conceivably field five seamers and by doing so, play to one of their strengths.