Australia and India are at the top of the 2023-25 World Test Championship points table, but it is still possible that neither may make it to the final.
A seven-wicket win in the first Test of the two-match series, in Mirpur, helped South Africa attain a PCT of 47.62 and reach fourth place on the World Test Championship 2023-25 points table, though they are some way behind Sri Lanka (55.56), currently third in the league. Top-ranked India (68.06) still hold a comfortable lead over second-placed Australia (62.50).
As is evident, the gap between one and two, two and three, and three and four, are substantial. However, there is still ample time left in the league stage for both Sri Lanka and South Africa to go past both India and Australia and qualify for the final.
Key series to determine finalists
South Africa in Bangladesh: two Tests (South Africa up 1-0)
New Zealand in India: three Tests (New Zealand up 1-0)
Pakistan in South Africa: two Tests
Sri Lanka in South Africa: two Tests
India in Australia: five Tests
Australia in Sri Lanka: two Tests
How can India and Australia be both knocked out?
For that to happen, India and Australia need to lose as many Tests as possible, and South Africa and Sri Lanka need to win as many as they can. Let us, thus, give three clean sweeps: South Africa against both Bangladesh and Pakistan, and Sri Lanka against Australia.
That will take South Africa to 63.33 and Sri Lanka to 63.64 (and Australia to 53.57). If they draw the series between them 1-1, Sri Lanka will finish on 61.54 and South Africa on 61.11.
That leaves seven Tests, over the course of which India have to drop below 61.11. The problem is, five of these will be against Australia – and India also have to ensure Australia do not go past 61.11.
If India beat New Zealand 2-1, they have to lose 1-4 to Australia. Neither scenario is unlikely, and if these happen, India will finish on 60.53 and Australia on 58.77.
There is some leeway if India draw the New Zealand series 1-1 or lose 1-2. In that case, a 3-2 Australian win will keep Australia to 55.26 and India to a maximum of 60.53.
What about the other teams?
England are fifth, but they have played 18 Tests – six more than anyone else. Their PCT will thus be not as sensitive as that of some other sides. Even if they win all four Tests, they will reach a maximum of 53.41.
New Zealand will reach 64.29 if they win all five Tests, but that includes two in India. If they lose one, they will finish on 57.14 – at best a borderline case. If they lose two, they will reach only 50.00.
The most Bangladesh can reach is 47.62. For Pakistan, it is 52.38. For the West Indies, 43.59. There are convoluted combinations that may result in their qualifications, but it is safe to say that they are as good as out of the race.
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