Rain threatens to reduce the India-New Zealand Bengaluru Test match to a draw. How will that harm India’s WTC final chances?
Rain washed out all of the first day’s play of the first Test of the three-match series between India and New Zealand, at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru. The weather prediction for the rest of the game does not look great, and there are chances of the Test petering out to a draw. Here is how the teams stand at this point.
How bad can draws hit teams at the WTC?
The impact of a draw (four points) in the World Test Championship is often underestimated. It may be closer to a defeat (zero) than to a win (12), but surely eight lost points are not significant enough to make a difference to a side set to play 19 Tests in this cycle (a maximum possible 228 points)?
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As is evident, India not only lead the table but also hold an 11.74-PCT lead over second-placed Australia. However, one draw will bring them down to 70.83, slashing about one-third of the lead. If India draw all three, they will get 12 points (and slip to 65.48) – the same as they will do if they lose the series 1-2.
Every draw, thus, can hurt the a side, especially the teams at the top of the points table. That is one of the reasons why teams try to prepare result-oriented surfaces at home in the WTC era.
India’s remaining matches at the 2023-25 World Test Championship
- 3 Tests at home against New Zealand (including the Bengaluru Test)
- 5 Tests in Australia
Will one draw hurt India?
As we have seen, a draw instead of a win – and India are expected to win home Tests – will slash India’s eventual points tally by eight points. Across 19 Tests, that will amount to a PCT difference of (100x8)/(12x19)=3.51.
Is 3.51 a large enough number to deny India a spot in the final?
If India beat New Zealand 2-0 and lose 1-4 in Australia, they will slide to 60.53 (which would be 64.04 if they win the Bengaluru Test).
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If Australia follow their triumph against India with a 0-1 defeat in Sri Lanka, they will finish on 62.28. And if South Africa win five of their remaining six Tests, they will finish on 61.11. Both numbers are between 60.53 and 64.04 – India’s predicted PCTs depending on whether they draw or win at Bengaluru.
The above equation assumes specific results based on India’s other matches. Apart from Australia and South Africa, Sri Lanka are also in the hunt, and some others are not been mathematically ruled out either.
The Bengaluru draw will keep India at the top, but it will hurt their case – even if by a slight margin.
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