India thrashed Australia by an innings and 132 runs in Nagpur to go 1-0 up in the four-match Test series. They also inched closer towards the final of the World Test Championship, to be played at The Oval between June 7 and 11.
However, the outcome effectively eliminated England and the West Indies from the race to the final – unless, of course, one or more teams above them bowl an unbelievably abysmal over rate. Australia are still more or less safe, but South Africa and Sri Lanka continue to stay in the hunt.
Only seven Test matches included in the championship remain before the final now – three in the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy and two in each of the West Indies’ tour of South Africa, and Sri Lanka’s of New Zealand.
It also should be remembered that the top two teams of the group stage will be determined based on the ratio between points won and points contested (PCT), rather than the number of wins on its own.
Who needs what to qualify for the World Test Championship final
Australia
Australia might have lost their first Test match heavily, but they have room for three more defeats in the series. Even in that scenario they will still qualify as long as Sri Lanka do not win their series in New Zealand 2-0. Alternately, a draw in just one of their remaining Tests against India will ensure them a berth in the final even if Sri Lanka beat New Zealand 2-0.
India
The most points South Africa can get to is 55.56. To beat that, India need to either win the series against Australia or win one further Test within the series. In other words, 4-0, 3-0, 3-1, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 1-0 series results will all work for India regardless of how South Africa fare against the West Indies.
Sri Lanka, on the other hand, pose a steeper challenge, for they can get to 61.11 points. To surpass that, India need to win at least three of the four Test matches in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.
Even if they do neither, however, the West Indies or New Zealand may help India qualify.
India-Australia possible PCT tallies
India 4-0 Australia – India 68.06, Australia 59.65
India 3-0 Australia – India 64.35, Australia 61.40
India 3-1 Australia – India 62.50, Australia 64.91
India 2-0 Australia – India 60.65, Australia 63.16
India 2-1 Australia – India 58.80, Australia 66.67
India 2-2 Australia – India 56.94, Australia 70.18
India 1-0 Australia – India 56.94, Australia 64.91
India 1-1 Australia – India 55.09, Australia 68.42
India 1-2 Australia – India 53.24, Australia 71.93
India 1-3 Australia – India 51.39, Australia 75.44
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka need to win both Test matches against New Zealand, which will take them to 61.11 (a guaranteed finish above South Africa). They will then have to hope for at least one of India and Australia to finish under their PCT.
For that, India either needs to sweep the series 4-0 (the only way of ensuring Australia finish below 61.11) or win two or fewer Tests themselves in the series (and finish below 61.11). Thus, anything barring a 3-0 or 3-1 Indian win will keep Sri Lanka in the hunt as long as they beat New Zealand 2-0.
Sri Lanka possible PCT tallies
New Zealand 2-0 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 38.46, Sri Lanka 44.44
New Zealand 1-0 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 33.33, Sri Lanka 47.22
New Zealand 1-1 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 30.77, Sri Lanka 52.78
New Zealand 0-0 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 28.21, Sri Lanka 50.00
New Zealand 0-1 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 25.64, Sri Lanka 55.56
New Zealand 0-2 Sri Lanka – New Zealand 23.08, Sri Lanka 61.11
South Africa
South Africa cannot go past Australia, so their qualification will have to be at the cost of both India and Sri Lanka. They need to win both their Test matches against the West Indies; need New Zealand to prevent Sri Lanka from doing the same; India to not win another Test match; and Australia to win at least once in the series.
South Africa-West Indies possible PCT tallies
South Africa 2-0 West Indies – South Africa 55.56, West Indies 34.62
South Africa 1-0 West Indies – South Africa 51.11, West Indies 37.18
South Africa 1-1 West Indies – South Africa 48.89, West Indies 42.31
South Africa 0-0 West Indies – South Africa 46.67, West Indies 39.74
South Africa 0-1 West Indies – South Africa 44.44, West Indies 44.87
South Africa 0-2 West Indies – South Africa 42.22, West Indies 50.00
Others
Not anymore. England have finished with 46.97, Pakistan with 38.1, and Bangladesh with 11.11. The most the West Indies will finish with is 50, while New Zealand will not go past 38.46.
Since Australia will have a minimum of 59.65 and India of 51.39, the abovementioned five teams are guaranteed to finish outside the top two spots.
