A 2-0 defeat in South Africa hurt Sri Lanka’s chances of a World Test Championship 2023-25 final berth, but they are still in it.
Sri Lanka had arrived in South Africa with an eye on the WTC 2023-25 final berth. That had taken a hit after they were decimated at Durban, but at Gqeberha, they did well to bowl out South Africa for 358 and reach 261-3.
However, South Africa hit back to snatch a 30-run lead and eventually set a target of 348. At 64-3 and then 122-5, Sri Lanka seemed out of the race before Dhananjaya de Silva and Kusal Mendis kept them in the hunt. However, resuming the fourth day on 205-5, they lasted only 17.1 overs, over which they lost five for 33.
The win pushed South Africa to the top of the points table, while Sri Lanka stayed at fourth place. However, Sri Lanka are still in with a chance.
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Lost | Draw | Points deducted | Points | PCT |
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 76 | 63.33 |
| 2 | Australia | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 102 | 60.71 |
| 3 | India | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 110 | 57.29 |
| 4 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 5 | England | 21 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 22 | 114 | 45.24 |
| 6 | New Zealand | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 69 | 44.23 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 9 | West Indies | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 24.24 |
Sri Lanka’s remaining matches in the WTC 2023-25 league stage:
Against Australia, Galle, January 29-February 2
Against Australia, Galle, February 6-10
How can Sri Lanka still qualify?
To begin with, they need to sweep Australia 2-0 and attain a PCT of 53.85. Nothing less will work. A 1-0 win will give them a mere 48.72. But will even a 2-0 win be enough?
South Africa have two Tests left, both against Pakistan at home. If they draw even one of them, they will reach 55.56 – more than 53.85. However, if they lose 0-2, South Africa will finish on 52.78. If that happens, Sri Lanka are likely to make it irrespective of the outcome in the India-Australia series. For example, a 2-3 defeat will result in Australia slumping to 50.00 (we have already assumed they will lose 0-2 in Sri Lanka). Similarly, a 2-3 defeat will result in India dropping to 53.51.
Also read: Sherfane Rutherford breaks West Indies record with maiden ODI ton
But what if South Africa go past 53.85? The only way for Sri Lanka to qualify, in that case, is for the India-Australia series to end in a 1-1 draw – in other words, if Brisbane, Melbourne, and Sydney all end in draws. If that happens, India will finish on 53.51 and Australia on 50.00 (same as their respective 2-3 defeats, emphasising why teams do not want to draw anymore).
To sum up, Sri Lanka’s best bet lies in a 2-0 Pakistan win in South Africa. If that happens, they will almost certainly qualify if they beat Australia 2-0. If South Africa draw one Test, Sri Lanka would still have to win 2-0 against Australia – and expect three consecutive draws in Australia.
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