Lucknow Super Giants’ win over Mumbai Indians on Tuesday (May 16) in Match 63 has thrown the IPL 2023 playoffs qualification race wide open in IPL 2023. As many as seven teams still in contention for three spots.

With just seven more league matches to go in IPL 2023, Gujarat Titans are the only team to have guaranteed a playoffs spot so far. In fact, they have secured a spot in Qualifier 1, as no team can reach their tally of 18 points now. On the other hand, Delhi Capitals and Sunrisers Hyderabad have been eliminated from the race, as they will finish behind the top four.

However, Chennai Super Kings, Lucknow Super Giants, Mumbai Indians, Royal Challengers Bangalore, Rajasthan Royals, Kolkata Knight Riders, and Punjab Kings are still in with a chance of finishing in the IPL 2023 playoffs. Here are the qualification scenarios for each of them.

Chennai Super Kings – 15 points from 13 games, NRR: 0.381

Remaining games: Delhi Capitals (away)

A win in their last game against Delhi will secure a top-four finish for Chennai. It might even secure a top-two finish as they have a better net run rate than Lucknow, which means that Lucknow will have to win their last game by a big margin.

A defeat, however, will complicate things for Chennai. They will have to hope that at least two teams out of Lucknow, Mumbai, Bangalore, and Punjab drop at least one game.

If that does not happen (in other words, if three or more teams out of these four win all their remaining matches), all of them will end up with 16 or more points, and Chennai will be left behind on 15.

Punjab Kings – 12 points from 12 games, NRR -0.268

Remaining games: Delhi Capitals (home), Rajasthan Royals (home)

Punjab can reach 16 if they win both their remaining matches, but will also rely on other results: they will want at least two of Chennai, Mumbai, Lucknow and Bangalore to lose a game each so the net run rate does not enter the equation.

There’s a mathematical possibility for them to qualify even if they lose one of their remaining games, but for that to happen, a lot of things will have to go their way. They will have to hope big margins in Mumbai’s defeat against Hyderabad and one of Bangalore’s two defeats. If all that happens, they will also have to beat Rajasthan by a similarly huge margin.

Mumbai Indians – 14 points from 13 games, NRR: NRR -0.128

Remaining games: Sunrisers Hyderabad (home)

A win against Hyderabad will take Mumbai to 16. If two or more teams out of Chennai, Lucknow, Bangalore, and Punjab drop at least one of their remaining matches, Mumbai will sail through without net run rate coming into the equation. They also have an outside chance of finishing in the top two.

However, if Mumbai fail to win their last game, they will have to hope that Bangalore lose both games (or one game by a huge margin) and Punjab beat Rajasthan but lose to Delhi and and Kolkata lose (or win by a small margin) in their last game.

Kolkata Knight Riders – 12 points from 13 games, NRR: NRR -0.256

Remaining games: Lucknow Super Giants (home)

Kolkata’s only chance to qualify is if they win their last match by a big margin and Mumbai lose big against Hyderabad and Bangalore lose both games (or lose one by a huge margin) and Punjab beat Rajasthan and Delhi beat Punjab. Lots of ifs and buts.

Lucknow Super Giants – 15 points from 13 games, NRR: 0.304

Remaining games: Kolkata Knight Riders (away)

A win in their last match will take Lucknow through to the top four. They even have a possibility of ending up in the top two if Chennai do not win their last match.

But if they lose against Kolkata, and at least three out of Chennai, Mumbai, Bangalore, and Punjab win all their remaining matches, Lucknow will be eliminated.

Rajasthan Royals – 12 points from 13 games, NRR: 0.140

Remaining games: Punjab Kings (away)

Like Kolkata, Rajasthan’s chances of qualifying are slim, though their superior net run makes their equation slightly simpler. They will qualify if they beat Punjab and both Mumbai and Bangalore lose all their remaining games.

If Bangalore win one and lose one, it will come down to net run rate between Bangalore and Rajasthan (if Rajasthan win and Mumbai lose their respective games).

Royal Challengers Bangalore – 12 points from 12 games, NRR: 0.166

Remaining games: Sunrisers Hyderabad (away), Gujarat Titans (home)

Bangalore have a simple equation. Two wins from their last two games will see them qualify for the playoffs. In fact, they even have a chance of finishing in the top two if Chennai and Lucknow lose their remaining games and Bangalore win theirs.

On the other hand, if they win one game and lose one, they will have to hope that Mumbai and Punjab do not win all their games, and Rajasthan do not win by a big margin. If they lose both their matches, they will be eliminated.

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