The second World Test Championship cycle begins with England’s five-Test series against India, and there will be several changes to how the league stage of the competition is structured.

The ICC’s acting CEO, Geoff Allardice recently confirmed that the next WTC cycle would have an altered points system. Every Test match will carry equal weighting and at the end of the cycle, the teams will be ranked based on the percentage of points won per points contested (PCT) accumulated over the two year period.

This is another step on from a change made during the first cycle, when ranking the teams by their overall points tally was ditched in favour of PCT, with several series postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, there was still criticism that not all games were equal, with winning two Tests in a five-match series garnered fewer points than winning one match in a two-Test series. Now, instead of assigning 120 points per Test series, equal points will be awarded for each Test, though if a team plays more Tests in total, each individual game will be less important to their overall tally. Got all that? Good.

The Future Tours Programme, confirmed long in advance, shows who each team will be playing, whether they will play home or away, and how many Tests will be in each series. Armed with this info, and the knowledge of the new points structure, we can take a look at which teams are well placed to mount a challenge this time around.

Australia

Home: England (5), West Indies (2), South Africa (3)
Away: Pakistan (2), Sri Lanka (2), India (4)

Australia have three away fixtures in Asian countries to go with the Ashes later this year, so unless they can improve in subcontinental conditions, they will struggle to qualify for the final. That said, they have relatively easier home fixtures against West Indies and South Africa, whose stocks have tumbled down in the last WTC cycle.

Bangladesh

Home: Pakistan (2), Sri Lanka (2), India (2)
Away: New Zealand (2), South Africa (2), West Indies (2)

Bangladesh have three tough away tours in the cycle and have home fixtures against three countries from Asia, which could deny them the edge they have at home when playing non-Asian teams.

England

Home: India (5), New Zealand (3), South Africa (3)
Away: Australia (5), West Indies (2), Pakistan (3)

England arguably have the toughest set of fixtures in the cycle. Not only do they play two five-match (and therefore high-weight) series against India and Australia, two top-quality sides, but they also have a home fixture against New Zealand, a side which recently beat them in their backyard before winning the WTC title. They will also face a strong Pakistan side away from home in this cycle. The West Indies tour will also not be a pushover considering England have won only one Test series in the Caribbean since 1968.

India

Home: New Zealand (2), Sri Lanka (3), Australia (4)
Away: England (5), South Africa (3), Bangladesh (2)

India have a relatively easier fixture with their toughest series being against England away from home at the start of the cycle. Win that, and they will be well on their way to qualifying for the final. While fixtures at home against New Zealand and Australia might look tough, India are so dominant in their own conditions that they will expect to win both comfortably. The away tour to South Africa could be a challenge, though the Proteas’ recent decline means India will likely go in as favourites.

New Zealand

Home: Bangladesh (2), South Africa (2), Sri Lanka (2)
Away: India (2), England (3), Pakistan (2)

New Zealand might have been helped by some fairly easy home series’ in the inaugural WTC cycle, but no such favours await them in the next cycle. Tough away tours to India and Pakistan await, and while their recent victory over England will give them confidence of a repeat, there is no guarantee. Similarly, the South Africa series at home will be a challenge; the Blackcaps have never beaten the Proteas in a Test series, though they will never have had a better chance.

Pakistan

Home: Australia (2), New Zealand (2), England (3)
Away: West Indies (3), Bangladesh (2), Sri Lanka (2)

Pakistan have perhaps the easiest fixture list this time around with home series against three sides they wouldn’t fancy facing on the road, but whom they will hope to turn over in favourable conditions. Their away tours are, meanwhile, easier with the West Indies tour being the only hardest challenge.

South Africa

Home: India (3), Bangladesh (2), West Indies (2)
Away: New Zealand (2), England (3), Australia (3)

South Africa’s returns in Test cricket have spiralled down steadily, and in this WTC cycle, their major challenge will be sorting their long-term Test side. Their fixtures are tough ones with away series’ against New Zealand, England and Australia. Though they have historically been competitive in such conditions, it should be counted as a success if they win even one of those three.

Sri Lanka

Home: Australia (2), Pakistan (2), West Indies (2)
Away: Bangladesh (2), India (3), New Zealand (2)

Sri Lanka face Australia, Pakistan and West Indies at home, but two of their three away tours are challenging, with a three-match series in India and a two-match series against New Zealand in New Zealand. They will hope to win the series in Bangladesh, but the Tigers are no longer pushovers.

West Indies

Home: Pakistan (3), England (2), Bangladesh (2)
Away: South Africa (2), Sri Lanka (2), Australia (2)

West Indies face three tough away tours in the cycle and have England and Pakistan also visiting them. Their bowling remains their strength, but as the recent South Africa series showed, good bowling teams can expose their brittle batting line-up. Still, winning all three home series isn’t beyond them, and nor is competing in Sri Lanka.

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