New Zealand are set to play Pakistan in the first semi-final of the T20 World Cup 2022 at the Sydney Cricket Ground. Here are five key battles likely to define the course of the match.

Finn Allen v Pakistan fast bowlers

With a 2,000-run cut-off, Allen’s strike rate of 172 is the highest in Twenty20 history. In this World Cup, it is 190 – a number that rises to 197 off the the 36 balls he has faced against fast bowlers. After bowling 16 balls of pace at him in their tournament opener at the same venue, Australia spent the rest of the tournament trying to play catch up. They failed.

Pakistan, on the other hand, are yet to bowl a single over of spin inside the powerplay in this World Cup. With Haris Rauf and Naseem Shah in form, Shaheen Shah Afridi regaining some of his mojo, and Mohammad Wasim an excellent backup, they have not needed to. They may change that – or they may stick to their strength, backing their fast bowlers to take out Allen with the new ball.

If that happens, the duel may not be long – for Allen has outlasted the powerplay only three times in T20Is. But an early onslaught or an early wicket may set up the match.

Babar-Rizwan v Southee-Boult

Even ahead of the tournament, there was much debate around Pakistan’s opening pair of Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan and their habit of putting up big stands, not all of them at a rapid rate. In this World Cup, they have failed on both counts (in five innings, Rizwan has 103 runs at a run a ball, Babar 39 at a strike rate of 62). At the same time, Mohammad Haris of Peshawar Zalmi has broken into the side after Fakhar Zaman’s injury to smash 59 in 29 balls across two innings.

With a 150-run cut-off, Haris had the second-highest strike rate in the last season of the PSL. He is an opener who does not need time to get set. One of Babar and Rizwan may make way for Haris – but then, Pakistan may want to send their best men to counter Tim Southee and Trent Boult bowling with the new ball.

Southee has figures of 9-1-58-3 in the powerplay overs in this World Cup. Boult, 8-0-41-3. Against Australia (37-3) and Sri Lanka (24-4), New Zealand had virtually settled the match inside the first six overs.

The middle-overs clash

The middle overs (seventh to 16th), while not as frantic as the powerplay or the death, amount to half the innings. New Zealand have scored at 8.39 in this phase in this T20 World Cup. Pakistan, at 7.30. In all T20Is this year, the numbers stand at 8.64 and 7.48. Across a 10-over span, this amounts to a gap of around 11 runs.

Pakistan’s batting rate in this phase of the innings has been cited to both Babar and Rizwan leaving the onslaught too late as well as to them getting out early, forcing the middle order to bat deep into the innings. Whatever the reason be, they will not find it easy against Mitchell Santner (6.43 an over in this World Cup, a wicket every 12 balls) and Ish Sodhi (6.78 and 15). Unless something changes, this may be tilt the balance significantly in favour of New Zealand.

The all-rounders

Both teams boast of depth in all-rounders, and yet, they have used their arsenal differently. Between them, Shadab Khan, Mohammad Nawaz, Wasim, and Iftikhar Ahmed have bowled 38 overs in this World Cup so far. Of the four, no one – perhaps with the exception of Shadab – would have played without their batting credentials.

New Zealand, on the other hand, have used exactly five bowlers in this World Cup, because they did not need to. Their all-rounders – Jimmy Neesham, Glenn Phillips, Daryl Mitchell – have remained unused. If this turns out to be a slog-fest where specialist bowlers are hit out of the attack, it may come down to which side has the better bowling depth.

Kane Williamson v Kane Williamson

Which Williamson will turn up on Wednesday? Across his first three innings – against Australia, Sri Lanka, and England – he had faced 76 balls for 71 runs, including five fours and a six. It may be argued that his run-a-ball 40 in a chase of 180 against England potentially cost New Zealand the match. Then, from 35 balls against Ireland, he smashed five fours and three sixes in his 61.

If New Zealand lose an early wicket, the approach of Williamson – who has faced 23 percent of New Zealand’s deliveries in the tournament – may define the course of the innings.

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