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2023-2025 World Test Championship

Who has the easiest path to the 2025 World Test Championship final?

by Wisden Staff 2 minute read

The 2023-2025 World Test Championship kicks off just days after the previous cycle culminates with its final between India and Australia at The Kia Oval.

As ever with ICC tournaments that incorporate multiple bilateral series, its structure is not that straightforward with not every side competing against each other. Every team contests six series – three home and three away – of varying length, with an equal number of points available for each individual Test with the table ordered by each side’s percentage of points won out of points contested. Simple, right?

This means that some sides have comparatively ‘easier’ fixture lists ,boosting their chances of qualifying for the final before the tournament has even begun. So, who are those sides with slightly more favourable fixture lists?

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Much has been made of the declining prominence Test cricket plays in South African cricket; in the 2023-2025 cycle, the Proteas will not contest a single series containing three or more Tests. They are one of two teams alongside Bangladesh to avoid having to play two of the world’s top three ranked sides Australia, India and England.

South Africa’s three home series are against India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, while their away contests are against Bangladesh, New Zealand and West Indies. South Africa have never lost a home series against either India or Pakistan while they will begin a home series against Sri Lanka as overwhelming favourites. Similarly, South Africa have never lost a series in either Bangladesh or New Zealand and are unbeaten in West Indies since 1992. If historical precedent is anything to go by, South Africa should be well placed to improve on their third placed finish in the 2021-2023 cycle.

Sri Lanka briefly threatened to qualify for the 2023 final and their fixture list in the next cycle is a mixed bag. Like South Africa, all six of Sri Lanka’s series will be two-Test affairs. They have decent recent home records against all the teams who are set to travel to Sri Lanka – Pakistan, Australia and New Zealand – but all three will be difficult to beat 2-0; away from home, they will start series against England and South Africa as underdogs.

For the so-called ‘Big Three’, given the nature of the modern day Test calendar, more than half (10 out of 19) of Australia and India’s Tests will be against other members of the Big Three, who also happen to be the top three ranked sides in the world right now. Given that every Test played in this cycle is weighed equally, it does put them at a theoretical disadvantage going into the campaign.

New Zealand, the first ever winners of the World Test Championship in 2021, have more than half of their Tests against members of the Big Three. They face all three of Australia, England and India, with the first two of those sides coming over to New Zealand for two- and three-Test series respectively. New Zealand are scheduled to play three Tests against India in India in late 2024.

Pakistan’s schedule sits somewhere in the middle. They host both Bangladesh and West Indies starting both of those series as overwhelming favourites. England are the other team to tour Pakistan and while Ben Stokes’ side recently secured a 3-0 series win in Pakistan, it is unlikely that Pakistan will field such a depleted attack at their disposal on England’s next visit. The three-Test series in Australia represents a major obstacle for Pakistan, however; Pakistan haven’t won a Test – let alone a series – in Australia since 1995.

Seven of West Indies’ 13 Tests are against the Big Three. Bangladesh play South Africa, New Zealand and Sri Lanka at home, and West Indies, Pakistan and India away. They have finished last in the first two editions of the World Test Championship, and are not expected to challenge.

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